By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $570.00 and a stop-loss of $490.00.
Mastercard is a financial transaction processing company that offers payment processing services for credit and debit cards, electronic cash, automated teller machines, and traveller's cheques. The company serves customers worldwide and offers both consumer and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions.
Mastercard enables a wide variety of payments capabilities (including products, services, and solutions) over its network among account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses and governments, offering its customers one partner for their payment needs.
Technically, the price at the lower range of an inclining linear regression channel pattern presents an attractive buying opportunity (see the insert on the main chart). This pattern continues to support a constructive long-term outlook for the stock given the recent rebound from the −2 standard deviation band which suggests that selling pressure may be easing and that buyers are beginning to re-emerge.
The trough in wave 1 based on Elliott Wave Price Theory also supports a bullish bias. This pattern often represents the exhaustion of a corrective decline and the establishment of a new support level, supportive of upside potential.
Upside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, and the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, also supports our bullish view.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | MA US |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (USD) | 453.9 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | -8.49% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -9.74% |
| Current Price (USD) | 513.60 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 601.77 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 464.52 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| The price remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) but is approaching it, suggesting that the stock may be in the early stages of reversing its longer-term downtrend. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 17.01 | 19.67 | 22.76 | 26.36 |
| Growth (%) | 15.61 | 15.73 | 15.81 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 3.04 | 3.49 | 3.88 | 4.36 |
| Growth (%) | 14.74 | 11.15 | 12.56 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 24.22 | 20.92 | 19.49 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.68 | 0.75 | 0.85 | |
| The company is set to deliver consistent double-digit earnings growth over the medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXON - Buy (Close position) | 452.51 | 560.61 | +23.9% | Take profit. The stock has reach profit target. | 26 September 2026 |
| AXP - Buy (Continue to hold) | 307.03 | 338.25 | +10.2% | The stock is testing the lower range of an upward-sloping channel pattern, remaining of technical interest. Continues to test its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is $352.00, with a trailing stop at $327.00. | 8 July 2026 |
| VMC - Buy (Continue to hold) | 268.94 | 295.01 | +9.7% | The combination of supportive long-term trend dynamics, improving momentum conditions and favourable mean-reversion characteristics remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA and upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $314.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$285.00. | 19 August 2026 |
| VRTX - Buy (Continue to hold) | 453.17 | 496.73 | +9.6% | A developing downward-sloping broadening pattern remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $506.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$484.00. | 26 August 2026 |
| UBER - Buy (Continue to hold) | 72.33 | 72.16 | -0.2% | The combination of the price at the lower range of an inclining channel pattern and the development of a double-bottom pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum has halted, which is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $85.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $69.50. | 11 August 2026 |
| WMT - Buy (Continue to hold) | 119.42 | 113.26 | -5.2% | The supportive seasonality profile of the stock remains of interest. Testing its 200-day SMA and downside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $135.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $133.00 | 27 October 2026 |
